These countries are at risk

5 countries that are at risk of conflict in 2023

In 2022, the world witnessed the fiercest military conflict since the cold war. Now in 2023, experts commented on 5 countries where conflicts could break out this year if the international community did not effectively prevent them. 

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Ukraine

The risk of nuclear weapons being used on this battlefield seems to have decreased since the summer of 2022 when the conflict here turned into a tug of war. However, the risk of escalation remains a concern.

The Russian side may be eager to make a breakthrough and shorten the conflict ( which has lasted more than 10 months so far.) The Ukrainian side may also be afraid of a prolonged war scenario, so it may risk taking action to break the stalemate.

The possibility of military conflict spilling over into NATO is real, though that possibility remains low for now. The probability that Russia can deploy nuclear weapons is small but has not been completely ruled out.The Biden administration and its allies in Europe have been extremely cautious to avoid the risk of an escalation, but Washington does not have all the cards and so kiev and Moscow may be willing to accept it, wider risk of conflict- a conflict that could develop into World war III.

Taiwan

The risk of military conflict between the two sides of Taiwan started to decrease slightly in the past few months due to the covid-19 situation in China. However, tensions between the two sides are still very high.

The fact that US president Biden’s administration has ventured to show its willingness to defend the island of Taiwan shows that Washington is aware of the possibility of an attack there.

If armed conflict broke out, It would likely involve the US and even Japan, thereby triggering a larger war.

Greece- Turkey

Over the past year, tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased significantly which is believed to stem mainly from Turkey’s adjustment of foreign policy as well as internal affairs in the presidential administration.

The dispute between Greece and Turkey over energy exploration in the Aegean Sea has fueled current tensions between the two countries, despite decades of territorial disagreements.

While the chances of a NATO member openly attacking another NATO member are slim, Past conflicts have pushed the two countries to the brink of war despite their commitments to the military alliance. Any skirmish between Turkey and Greece would immediately drag NATO into the fold.

Korean Peninsula

Over the past few months, tensions between North Korea and South Korea have steadily increased, Both slides seem to be showing impatience.

This tension is nothing new, however, it was previously dominated by the Cold war and the post cold war international order. Today these constraints are lost or weakened to the extent that Pyongyang may calculate that it is time to act and Seoul that it can no longer be patient.

If war breaks out this time on the Korean peninsula, it will most likely turn out to be more destructive than the conflict in Ukraine with the risk of both sides using both conventional and nuclear weapons, resulting in trade and death, and a great loss for both sides.

China- India 

‘Scattered clashes between China and India continued, Neither side showed any signs of backing down. At some point, it is not excluded that India or China may attempt to resolve the border dispute between the two countries through an escalation- this escalation may be controlled or it may be possible open the door to a larger scale, more destructive conflict.

Praying for peace, with the scenario of World war III never happening- To date, the probability of the aforementioned disputes developing into a global conflict is low. However, the armed conflict in Ukraine has had several aspects facing the danger of crossing the threshold.

The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has demonstrated that major conflicts can persist despite great efforts on the part of the international community. Maintaining peace requires prudent governance skills and adapting at managing wartime escalation.

Source-lifehub.vn